Box Office Predictions: The Diplomat to open low, but can word-of-mouth save the day?

Months following the lackluster outing of Vedaa, John Abraham is back with his next action drama, The Diplomat. Directed by Shivam Nair, the movie will hit the screens on March 14, 2025, during the Holi festival. Based on a real-life story, the movie also features Sadia Khateeb, Kumud Mishra, and Sharib Hashmi. It is a political thriller. Its box office collections are expected to be cold.

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Low Opening Day Expectations

The Diplomat’s box office collections are likely to be slow, with estimates ranging for an opening of approximately Rs 2 crore. The movie has not created much of a buzz amongst film lovers, and the campaign for it has been relatively subdued. Even with the action-oriented premise, the teasers, trailers, songs, and posters have not managed to generate much of a hype, and hence the film will be banking heavily on word-of-mouth and audience response after its release.

Comparison to Vedaa’s Opening

Compared to John Abraham’s last film, Vedaa, The Diplomat will make significantly less on the opening day. Vedaa, which opened in August 2024, collected Rs 6.5 crore on the opening day despite competing with two other major releases. Vedaa proved to be a box-office dud, though. The slow opening for The Diplomat is because of the absence of pre-release hype and poor advance bookings.

Competition and Box Office Performance

Though The Diplomat has a solo release on Holi, it will have to contend with the holdover film Chhaava. Based on real-life political happenings, the film features John Abraham as J.P. Singh, an Indian diplomat, and Sadia Khateeb as Uzma Ahmed, an Indian citizen who is kidnapped and made to marry a Pakistani man. The success of the film will ultimately lie in its audience reception and critical reception after release

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