The Oscars are just days away and the race for Hollywood’s biggest prizes is getting intense. Prediction markets are beginning to show clear favorites across several major categories. According to forecasts from Polymarket, the current frontrunner for Best Actor is Michael B. Jordan, who is projected to win his first Academy Award with a probability of around 51 percent. That places him ahead of Timothée Chalamet, who had been considered one of the strongest contenders earlier in the awards season. One of the biggest stories emerging from the prediction markets is the dominance of One Battle After Another.
The film is currently projected to have a major night at the Academy Awards, with a 77 percent probability of winning Best Picture according to Polymarket forecasts. The film is also predicted to take home Best Cinematography, where it holds a projected probability of around 76 percent. The project is directed by Paul Thomas Anderson, who is also predicted to win Best Director based on the same market projections.
In the acting categories, the predictions show a strong consensus in several races. Jessie Buckley is projected to win Best Actress with an overwhelming 97 percent probability according to Polymarket’s numbers. In the supporting categories, Amy Madigan is currently predicted to win Best Supporting Actress, while Sean Penn leads the Best Supporting Actor race with a projected probability of 69 percent.
In other categories, Cinemal Value is projected to win Best International Feature Film. Meanwhile Ciner’s currently holds a smaller projected chance in the Best Original Screenplay race, sitting at around 25 percent in prediction market forecasts.
One of the more surprising aspects of the Best Actor race is the position of Timothée Chalamet. Earlier in the season, many awards watchers considered him one of the strongest contenders. However, his chances appear to have slipped slightly according to prediction market trends.
Some observers have speculated that recent comments made by Chalamet about ballet and opera being art forms that “no one cares about anymore” may have affected public perception among parts of the artistic community. The remarks sparked criticism from artists and performers, including ballet star Misty Copeland, who responded publicly to the comments.
Whether those remarks actually influence Oscar voting remains unclear. Awards races often shift rapidly in the final days before the ceremony, and the Academy’s voting body can produce unexpected results.
For now, though, the data from prediction markets suggests that Michael B. Jordan and One Battle After Another could be the biggest winners when the envelopes are finally opened on Oscar night.